What is up, friends!? Just a heads up that I’m still working on refining all the NBA picks now that NFL is coming to an end. I think I’ll find a way to get that dialed in more consistently as time goes on.
A lot of you have been requesting college basketball as well. I’ll look into that maybe next month to see if I can pull something good together because I know there are a lot of good data sources and teams start to figure themselves out in February/March.
Big win for OSU last night! Holy shit, they’re favored by 9.5 against ND in the championship game — that’s pretty wild. We hit the spread and the under in the OSU game so my only big CFB playoff miss (and it could have gone either way) was Penn State vs. ND. Definitely crushed it these college football playoffs.
Alright, let’s get into the analysis for today…
NFL Wildcard Betting Analysis and Matchups
Chargers vs. Texans Wildcard Matchup Breakdown 🏈
📅 Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
⏰ Time: 4:30 PM ET
📍 Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
📺 Broadcast: CBS
Spread: Chargers -3
Total: 41.5 O/U
Key Stats & Trends
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, 12-5 ATS)
🔹 Strengths:
Defensive Domination: Fewest points allowed in the NFL (17.7 PPG), 7th-ranked pass defense, 1st in red zone defense.
QB Justin Herbert: 23 TDs to just 3 INTs this season, thriving in December with 3 straight games of 34+ points.
Ladd McConkey: Emerging rookie WR with 80+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games.
🔹 Concerns:
Rush Defense Vulnerability: Ranked 14th, allowing 4.7 YPC.
Red Zone Offense: 18th-ranked TD conversion rate (56%).
🔹 Recent Trends:
Covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 games.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Houston Texans (10-7, 7-8-2 ATS)
🔹 Strengths:
C.J. Stroud: Strong season (3,727 yards, 20 TDs) despite losing WRs Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs.
Joe Mixon: 1,016 rushing yards, key for a ground-heavy attack.
Defensive Balance: Top-6 pass defense, led by Daniel Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. with 21 combined sacks.
🔹 Concerns:
Offensive Inconsistencies: Averaged just 21.9 PPG with limited explosiveness since Dell/Diggs injuries.
Stroud's Struggles Under Pressure: Texans O-line ranked 22nd in pass-blocking, facing a Chargers D that’s 8th in sack rate.
🔹 Recent Trends:
Failed to cover in 3 of their last 5 games.
Unders hit in 11 of 17 games this season (6-1 at home).
Key Matchups
Chargers Offense vs. Texans Defense
Play Action Battle: Herbert thrives with play action (+3.4 YPA), but Houston ranks 1st in defending play action.
McConkey vs. Texans Secondary: Texans without Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, opening opportunities for Herbert to exploit the middle.
Texans Offense vs. Chargers Defense
Run-Heavy Approach: Texans likely lean on Mixon and a ground-heavy strategy against a middling Chargers rush defense.
Stroud’s Decision-Making: His 12 INTs this season will be tested against the Chargers’ opportunistic secondary (7th in INT%).
Betting Picks
Spread:
Pick: Chargers -3
The Chargers’ elite defense, coupled with Herbert’s efficiency, gives them the edge over a Texans team missing key offensive weapons.
Total:
Pick: Under 41.5
Both teams boast top-tier defenses, and the Texans’ recent offensive struggles point toward a low-scoring affair.
Props to Watch:
1️⃣ C.J. Stroud Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Limited targets and a relentless Chargers pass rush spell trouble for Stroud.
2️⃣ Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+100)
Houston struggles in the red zone and ranks 27th in passing TDs allowed.
3️⃣ Ladd McConkey 75+ Receiving Yards (-110)
Herbert’s go-to target in a depleted WR corps will see heavy volume against a weakened Texans secondary.
Final Score Prediction:
Chargers 24, Texans 17
Chargers advance to their first divisional round since 2018, led by a stellar defensive showing and clutch play from Herbert.
Steelers vs. Ravens Wild Card Matchup Analysis 🏈
📅 Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
⏰ Time: 8:00 PM ET
📍 Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
📺 Broadcast: Amazon Prime Video
Spread: Ravens -9.5
Total: 44.0 O/U
Game Preview
The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) and Baltimore Ravens (12-5) are set to square off in an AFC North rivalry game in the Wild Card round. The Ravens are riding a four-game winning streak, while the Steelers limp into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. This marks the third meeting this season between these divisional foes, with the series split 1-1.
The Ravens have established themselves as one of the most complete teams in the NFL, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, while the Steelers rely heavily on their defense and the veteran presence of Russell Wilson.
Key Stats & Trends
Baltimore Ravens (12-5, 9-7-1 ATS)
🔹 Strengths:
Ground Dominance: #1 in rushing offense (187.6 YPG), led by Derrick Henry’s 1,912 yards and 16 TDs.
Explosive Passing: Lamar Jackson threw for 4,000+ yards with a league-best 119.6 QB rating.
Elite Red Zone Efficiency: Ravens convert 74.2% of red-zone trips into touchdowns (1st in NFL).
Defensive Front Seven: #1 against the run, allowing just 80.1 YPG and 3.6 YPC.
🔹 Concerns:
Injuries: WR Zay Flowers (knee) is out, limiting big-play potential.
Secondary Struggles: Ranked 31st in passing yards allowed per game (244.1).
🔹 Recent Trends:
4-0 ATS in their last four games.
Unders have hit in five of their last eight games.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 7-10 ATS)
🔹 Strengths:
Defensive Grit: Top-10 in scoring defense (20.4 PPG) and #5 against the run (98.7 YPG).
Opportunistic Turnovers: 2nd in turnover margin (+0.9/game).
Key Players: T.J. Watt (11.5 sacks) and Najee Harris (1,043 rushing yards).
🔹 Concerns:
Offensive Struggles: Ranked 29th in red zone efficiency (48.2%) and 27th in passing offense.
Inconsistent Russell Wilson: 16 TDs, 5 INTs, but lacks explosive plays (192 YPG passing).
Run Defense Issues vs. Baltimore: Allowed 6.0 YPC in two regular-season matchups.
🔹 Recent Trends:
0-4 ATS in their last four games.
Unders have hit in six of their last nine games.
Matchups to Watch
Ravens Offense vs. Steelers Defense
Ravens’ Rushing Attack: Derrick Henry’s punishing ground game faces a top-5 Steelers run defense.
Lamar Jackson’s Passing: The Steelers rank 25th against the pass, but Zay Flowers’ absence limits deep threats.
Steelers Offense vs. Ravens Defense
Steelers’ Rushing Game: Najee Harris must find success against the league’s top-ranked run defense.
Russell Wilson vs. Ravens’ Secondary: Can Wilson exploit Baltimore’s struggling secondary with limited weapons?
Betting Picks
Spread:
Pick: Ravens -9.5
Baltimore’s elite rushing attack, combined with Pittsburgh’s offensive woes, suggests a comfortable Ravens win. Expect Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to control the tempo.
Total:
Pick: Under 44.0
Both defenses are strong, and the Steelers’ offensive struggles point to a low-scoring game.
Props to Watch:
1️⃣ Jaylen Warren Over 55.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)
Warren has seen increased usage and is a versatile threat against the Ravens’ tough defense.
2️⃣ Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-150)
Henry is a red-zone machine and a focal point of the Ravens’ offense.
3️⃣ Mark Andrews Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
With Zay Flowers out, Andrews will be Jackson’s go-to target in critical situations.
Final Score Prediction:
Ravens 27, Steelers 13
Baltimore’s rushing dominance and suffocating defense will prove too much for Pittsburgh to overcome. Expect the Ravens to punch their ticket to the Divisional Round with a convincing win at home.
NBA Analysis and Best Bets for January 11, 2025
Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Spread: Rockets -6.0
Pick: Rockets to cover (-6.0)
The Rockets play excellent defense against guards, limiting point guard scoring. The Hawks, by contrast, struggle defensively against opposing guards. Expect Houston's defensive edge to make a difference.
Total: O234.5
Projected points align closely with the total, but given the Rockets' defense, a slight lean towards the Under could be considered.
Prop Bet: Jalen Green O3.5 Threes (+160)
Green’s volume and matchup against Atlanta’s perimeter defense make this high-value.
Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns
Spread: Suns -11.5
Pick: Suns to cover (-11.5)
The Suns have a significant talent edge, led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. The Jazz’s struggles on both ends make this a tough matchup for them.
Total: O228.0
The Suns’ offensive efficiency suggests a high-scoring game. The Over is the preferred play.
Prop Bet: Kevin Durant O4.5 Assists (+105)
Durant’s facilitation role provides value at this number, especially with the Suns’ offensive firepower.
Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons
Spread: Pistons -4.0
Pick: Pistons to cover (-4.0)
The Raptors' defense has been inconsistent, and Detroit plays better at home. Expect Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren to capitalize on mismatches.
Total: O229.0
Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, making the Over the best play here.
Prop Bet: Cade Cunningham O19.5 Points (-120)
Cunningham is the Pistons' offensive leader and faces a Raptors team that struggles against guards.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Spread: Timberwolves -1.5
Pick: Grizzlies to cover (+1.5)
With Ja Morant back, Memphis should find its rhythm offensively. The Timberwolves have shown recent inconsistency, giving the Grizzlies the edge in a tight matchup.
Total: O231.5
Both teams have offensive firepower, and with Morant leading the charge, the Over is a solid option.
Prop Bet: Anthony Edwards O3.5 Threes (-117)
Edwards has been on fire from beyond the arc and faces a Grizzlies team that struggles to defend the perimeter.
Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Spread: Heat -3.0
Pick: Heat to cover (-3.0)
Miami’s depth and recent form without Jimmy Butler still make them a strong team against a rebuilding Blazers squad.
Total: O219.0
With Tyler Herro carrying the offensive load, expect Miami to push the pace and exceed the total. Over 219.0 is a great value.
Prop Bet: Tyler Herro O22.5 Points (-115)
Herro has been Miami’s go-to scorer, and Portland's defensive struggles support the over on his scoring line.
Prop Bet: Nikola Jovic O10.5 Points (-109)
With Butler out, Jovic benefits from more minutes and opportunities to score.
Additional Player Prop Bets
Deni Avdija O14.5 Points (-110): Avdija has seen increased opportunities with Portland, making this a solid scoring prop.
Fred VanVleet O7.5 Assists (-115): VanVleet has excelled as the Rockets' primary facilitator and should rack up assists against Atlanta's poor defense.
Best Bets Recap:
Rockets -6.0
Pistons -4.0
Grizzlies +1.5
Heat -3.0
Over 229.0 (Raptors vs. Pistons)
Over 22.5 Points (Tyler Herro)
Anthony Edwards O3.5 Threes (-117)
Final Thoughts
I’d suggest using the NBA analysis as extra research to pick and choose your favorite bets for now. I don’t suggest going super hard on every single pick here. Just want to be sure you stay in the game!
Back tomorrow with more action.
-Mike