The NFL games yesterday were pretty weak if I’m being honest, but as always, there was plenty of room for opportunity. Even though I was on the Chargers -2.5, it was clear very early on they were not converting their opportunities against the Texans. It never fails — when a team is up early and should be up even more, they always seem to crack and lose the game.
Sure enough, the Texans live bet was probably the bet of the night. This is very key to watch these set ups and hammer them — it’s the difference between having a losing night and either breaking even OR having a winning night.
The Ravens took care of business easily, and my prediction of 28-13 was only one point off :). Let’s dive in for today!
Crypto Market Updates
I’m still hanging tight. The longer BTC stays in a range above $90k, the better it is for holding alt coins. I’m still bullish this year given the advancements in AI and how those relate to crypto.
Things like AERO are worth holding when you analyze the total revenue vs. the market cap. Why would this coin be going down when revenue is increasing week over week? Makes no sense, so I’m happy to hold (and potentially buy more).
Take a look at $AERO below — the green line is the market cap / price of the coin and then bars going up to the right are the revenue increasing over time. Strange, huh?
Aerodrome market cap vs. revenue
Denver Broncos (10-7) vs. Buffalo Bills (13-4) Matchup & Betting Analysis
Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV: CBS
Betting Odds:
Spread: Bills -8.5 (-115), Broncos +8.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Bills -490, Broncos +355
Total Points (O/U): 47.5 (O -115, U -105)
Team Analysis
Denver Broncos
Offensive Strengths: Rookie QB Bo Nix has had an impressive debut season, finishing 12th in the NFL with 3,775 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. He has shown dual-threat ability with 430 rushing yards and four scores. WR Courtland Sutton (1,081 yards, 8 TDs) leads the receiving corps, supported by Marvin Mims Jr. (503 yards, 6 TDs).
Defensive Strengths: Ranked 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense (18.3 PPG), Denver’s defense is anchored by LB Nick Bonitto (13.5 sacks) and CB Patrick Surtain II, who leads a strong secondary. The Broncos excel in pressuring QBs, leading the league with 63 sacks.
Weaknesses: Denver struggles in the run game, averaging just 112.2 rushing yards per game (16th in NFL), with their top RB Javonte Williams managing only 513 rushing yards. The team lacks playoff experience, and Bo Nix faces a tough test in his first postseason start.
Buffalo Bills
Offensive Strengths: MVP-favorite QB Josh Allen leads a potent attack, finishing with 3,731 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions. He adds another dynamic on the ground, rushing for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns. RB James Cook provides balance with 1,009 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Buffalo ranks 2nd in scoring (30.9 PPG).
Defensive Strengths: The Bills rank 11th in scoring defense (21.6 PPG) and have a balanced unit led by LB Dorian Williams (117 tackles) and DE Greg Rousseau (8 sacks). Buffalo’s secondary has playmakers capable of creating turnovers, with 16 interceptions this season.
Weaknesses: The secondary has been inconsistent, ranking 28th in opponent completion percentage (68.5%). The defense regressed slightly in the second half of the season, allowing more explosive plays.
Key Matchups
Josh Allen vs. Denver’s Defense
Allen thrives under playoff pressure, averaging 56.3 rushing yards per game in the postseason. Denver’s pass rush, led by Bonitto, will need to contain Allen, but their aggressive style could leave lanes for him to exploit. Patrick Surtain II may neutralize Buffalo’s top receivers, but Allen’s ability to spread the ball will challenge the Broncos' secondary.
Bo Nix vs. Buffalo’s Defense
Nix has shown poise but faces a challenging environment in his playoff debut. Buffalo’s two-high safety scheme limits explosive plays, and Nix has struggled against zone defenses (9 of 12 INTs this season). Denver’s offensive line will need to protect against a Bills pass rush led by Rousseau, while Nix must avoid turnovers to keep the Broncos competitive.
James Cook vs. Denver’s Run Defense
Denver boasts the NFL’s 2nd-best run defense (3.9 YPC allowed), but James Cook’s versatility as a runner and receiver could cause problems. Look for Buffalo to utilize Cook in space to exploit Denver’s linebackers in coverage.
Betting Trends
Spread:
Denver: 12-5 ATS during the regular season, best in the NFL.
Buffalo: Covered 7 of 10 games as home favorites by 8+ points over the last two seasons.
Over/Under:
Buffalo: Over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games.
Denver: Over cashed in 5 of their last 6 games before Week 18.
Key Prop Bets
Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-120):
Allen’s playoff rushing numbers are significantly higher than in the regular season, and Denver’s pass rush may force him to scramble often.James Cook Anytime TD (-130):
Cook is Buffalo’s go-to red zone option, leading the league with 16 rushing touchdowns.Bo Nix Over 23.5 Pass Completions (+100):
Nix will likely face a negative game script, forcing Denver to rely on the pass.
Final Prediction
Buffalo’s experience, balanced offense, and home-field advantage should allow them to control this matchup. Denver’s defense will keep the game close initially, but Bo Nix’s inexperience and the Broncos’ inability to run the ball consistently will be their undoing. Look for Josh Allen and James Cook to lead the way in a comfortable Bills victory.
Final Score: Bills 31, Broncos 17
Best Bets:
Bills -8.5
Under 47.5
Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards
Green Bay Packers (11-6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) Matchup and Betting Analysis
Game Details
Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025
Time: 4:30 PM EST
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: FOX
Betting Lines and Overview
Spread: Eagles -5.5 (-110) | Packers +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Eagles -250 | Packers +210
Over/Under: 46.0 (-105 O / -115 U)
Team Analysis
Green Bay Packers (11-6, NFC 7th Seed)
Key Players:
QB Jordan Love: 3,389 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs; limited in Week 18 with an elbow issue but expected to play fully.
RB Josh Jacobs: 1,329 yards, 15 TDs; the engine of the Packers' offense.
WR Jayden Reed: 857 yards, 6 TDs; steps into a larger role with Christian Watson out.
Season Recap:
The Packers stumbled to the finish line with back-to-back divisional losses, including a Week 18 defeat to Chicago. Despite these setbacks, Green Bay’s offense ranked 8th in scoring (27.1 PPG) and 5th in total yards (370.8 YPG). Their defense was also strong, ranking 6th in points allowed (19.9 PPG) and 5th in yards allowed (314.5 YPG).
The Packers are a run-heavy team, relying on Josh Jacobs and a top-5 rushing offense (146.8 YPG, 5th). Defensively, they excel at stopping the run, allowing only 99.4 rushing YPG (7th). However, injuries could test their depth in this critical playoff matchup.
Injury Report:
Out: WR Christian Watson (ACL).
Questionable: QB Malik Willis (thumb), LB Quay Walker (ankle), S Javon Bullard (ankle).
Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, NFC 2nd Seed)
Key Players:
QB Jalen Hurts: 2,903 passing yards, 18 TDs, 5 INTs; 630 rushing yards, 14 TDs. He returns after a three-week absence.
RB Saquon Barkley: 2,005 rushing yards, 13 TDs; led the NFL in rushing yards and is the centerpiece of Philly’s offense.
WR A.J. Brown: 1,079 yards, 7 TDs; a big-play threat for Jalen Hurts.
Season Recap:
The Eagles dominated the NFC East en route to a 14-3 record. They finished 7th in scoring (27.2 PPG) and 8th in total offense (367.2 YPG). Their defense was the league’s best, allowing only 17.8 PPG (2nd) and 278.4 YPG (1st).
Philly’s rushing attack, led by Barkley, ranked 2nd in the NFL (179.3 YPG). Jalen Hurts’ ability to extend plays with his legs adds another dimension to their offense. Defensively, the Eagles excel at stopping the pass, allowing a league-low 174.2 YPG. However, they are vulnerable to power rushing attacks, which could be problematic against Josh Jacobs.
Key Matchups
1. Green Bay’s Rushing Attack vs. Philadelphia’s Run Defense
Green Bay: 5th in rushing offense (146.8 YPG); Josh Jacobs is key to their success.
Philadelphia: 10th in rushing defense (104.2 YPG). They’ve struggled against elite runners this season, allowing over 100 yards to players like Bijan Robinson and Kyren Williams.
2. Philadelphia’s Pass Defense vs. Jordan Love
Philadelphia: 1st in pass defense (174.2 YPG), thanks to elite coverage and a disruptive front seven.
Green Bay: Love has been inconsistent against top defenses, and losing WR Christian Watson further limits the Packers’ passing game.
3. Jalen Hurts’ Mobility vs. Green Bay’s Defense
Hurts is returning after a three-week absence but has been a weapon all season with 14 rushing TDs. Green Bay ranks 3rd in sacks but may struggle to contain Hurts on broken plays.
Betting Analysis
Spread: Eagles -5.5
Philadelphia has been dominant at home (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) and has the league’s best defense. Green Bay’s recent struggles and injury issues make it difficult to trust them on the road. However, the Packers’ ability to run the ball could keep this game within a touchdown.
Pick: Packers +5.5 — The Packers will keep this game close in a lower scoring game.
Total: 46.0
Both teams feature strong defenses, and injuries on offense may lead to a lower-scoring game. Green Bay will look to slow the pace with their run game, while Philadelphia’s run-first approach also limits possessions.
Pick: Under 46.0
Moneyline: Eagles -250 | Packers +210
While the Packers have a puncher’s chance, the Eagles are healthier and more complete. Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley should carry Philly to a hard-fought win.
Pick: Eagles -250
Predicted Outcome
Score: Eagles 24, Packers 20
The Eagles pull out a close win at home, led by a strong performance from Saquon Barkley and a late-game surge from Jalen Hurts.
Player Props
Josh Jacobs Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Jacobs will be heavily utilized, and the Eagles have shown vulnerabilities against elite running backs.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+110)
Hurts is a red-zone threat with 14 rushing TDs on the season.
A.J. Brown Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Brown remains Hurts’ go-to target and should see plenty of opportunities against Green Bay’s secondary.
Best Bets
Packers +5.5 (-110)
Green Bay’s defense and run game should keep this close.
Under 46.0 (-115)
Both teams play a slower pace with strong defenses.
Josh Jacobs Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Expect Jacobs to carry the load for the Packers.
Jordan Love over 5.5 rushing yards
Just has to get one rush...
Washington Commanders (12-5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) Matchup & Betting Analysis
📅 Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025
🕗 Time: 8:00 PM ET
📍 Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
📺 TV: NBC
Odds
Spread: Buccaneers -3 (-105), Commanders +3 (-115)
Moneyline: Buccaneers -150, Commanders +130
Total: Over 50.5 (-110), Under 50.5 (-110)
Team Analysis
Washington Commanders
Record: 12-5 (10-6-1 ATS)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 28.5 (5th)
Yards/Game: 369.6 (7th)
Rush Yards/Game: 154.1 (3rd)
Pass Yards/Game: 215.6 (17th)
Yards/Play: 5.7 (10th)
Defensive Rank (Yards Allowed): 11th
Injury Report:
WR Jamison Crowder: Questionable
Strengths:
Rushing Attack: The Commanders rank 3rd in rushing yards per game, thanks to Daniels’ dual-threat capabilities and a solid ground game led by Robinson.
Defensive Front: Their defensive line is anchored by Jonathan Allen, who can disrupt Tampa Bay’s rushing and passing games.
Ball Control: Washington averages a solid time of possession (50.8%, 11th), complementing their balanced offensive scheme.
Weaknesses:
Pass Protection: Daniels was sacked 50 times (26th), and Tampa’s aggressive pass rush could exploit this vulnerability.
Run Defense: They rank 30th in rushing yards allowed (137.5 per game), which could spell trouble against Tampa Bay’s potent ground game.
Turnover Creation: The Commanders rank 20th in takeaways (1.0 per game), limiting their ability to capitalize on opponent mistakes.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 10-7 (10-7 ATS)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 29.5 (4th)
Yards/Game: 399.6 (3rd)
Rush Yards/Game: 149.2 (4th)
Pass Yards/Game: 250.4 (3rd)
Yards/Play: 6.2 (4th)
Defensive Rank (Yards Allowed): 18th
Injury Report:
S Antoine Winfield Jr.: Questionable
CB Jamel Dean: Questionable
TE Cade Otton: Questionable
Strengths:
Explosive Offense: Mayfield has been a top-five passer this season, and Tampa’s balanced offense ranks 4th in scoring and total yards.
Rushing Defense: They allow just 97.8 rushing yards per game (4th), making it difficult for opponents to dominate on the ground.
Big-Play Weapons: Mike Evans and rookie Jalen McMillan form a dynamic receiving duo, giving Tampa versatility in the passing game.
Weaknesses:
Pass Defense: Tampa ranks 29th in passing yards allowed per game (243.9), making them susceptible to big plays.
Turnovers: Mayfield’s 16 interceptions contributed to Tampa’s -0.3 turnover margin (20th).
Red Zone Efficiency: While Tampa scores often, their defense ranks just 13th in red-zone efficiency.
Matchups to Watch
Commanders’ Passing Attack vs. Buccaneers’ Pass Defense
Should be opportunities to pass for the Commanders and Daniels to run around.
Bucs Running Attack vs. Commanders’ Rush Defense
Bucky should feast on a weak front.
Betting Trends
Commanders:
10-6-1 ATS this season.
5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
4-2 ATS as underdogs.
Buccaneers:
6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
8-4-1 ATS at home over the past two seasons.
4-3 ATS as favorites.
Final Prediction
Final Score: Buccaneers 31, Commanders 27
Tampa Bay’s balanced offensive attack and home-field advantage will be too much for the Commanders to overcome. Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving should exploit Washington’s weak run defense, while the Commanders’ explosive offense will keep them competitive in a high-scoring affair.
Best Bets
Over 50.5 Points (-110): Both teams feature explosive offenses and vulnerable defenses, setting up a shootout.
Tampa Bay -3 (-105): Mayfield’s efficient passing and Tampa’s ability to control the clock give them the edge.
Jayden Daniels Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Daniels’ mobility will be a key factor against Tampa’s aggressive pass rush.
Bucky Irving Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Tampa’s ground game will exploit Washington’s porous run defense.
NBA Betting Analysis for January 12, 2025
Denver Nuggets (-5.0) at Dallas Mavericks
Injury Notes: Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving remain out for Dallas. Nikola Jokic (questionable) is a pivotal injury to monitor for Denver. P.J. Washington leads the Mavericks' secondary scoring effort.
Key Stats:
Denver: #3 in points per game (120.6), #1 in assists/game (31.5), and dominant in points in the paint (57.1, #1).
Dallas: Struggling without their stars but ranks #6 in three-point percentage (37.5%) due to role players like Tim Hardaway Jr.
Pick: Nuggets -5.0. Denver’s elite paint scoring and playmaking should dominate against Dallas' depleted lineup. If Jokic is ruled out, adjust expectations.
Over/Under (228.5): Under. Dallas’ offense takes a hit without Doncic and Irving, limiting scoring.
Prop Bets:
Nikola Jokic PRA Over 52.5 (if he plays): A must-take for Jokic’s dominance across all categories.
P.J. Washington Over 18.5 Points: Dallas will lean heavily on Washington for offensive production.
Milwaukee Bucks (-4.0) at New York Knicks
Injury Notes: Giannis Antetokounmpo (likely to play), Damian Lillard remains questionable. Mikal Bridges has stepped into a leadership role for the Knicks alongside Karl-Anthony Towns.
Key Stats:
Bucks: #7 in defensive points allowed (111.8) and #5 in three-point defense (35.7%).
Knicks: Top-10 in effective FG% (56.7%) and points in the paint (52.6), powered by Towns’ versatility.
Pick: Knicks +4.0. With Giannis likely playing, this will be close, but New York’s efficiency (2nd in eFG%) and improved defense keep them competitive at home.
Over/Under (228.0): Over. Both teams play at a fast pace and have high offensive efficiency.
Prop Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 10.5 Rebounds: The Knicks’ size demands an elite rebounding effort from Giannis.
Mikal Bridges Over 22.5 Points: Bridges will bounce back after 0 points his last game.
Sacramento Kings (-4.0) at Chicago Bulls
Injury Notes: De’Aaron Fox (questionable) is critical for Sacramento’s offense.
Key Stats:
Sacramento: #9 in points/game (115.9) and excels in clutch fourth-quarter scoring (27.6, #11).
Chicago: #4 in points/game (118.5) but struggles defensively, allowing the most points/game (120.8, #30).
Pick: Bulls +4.0. Chicago’s high-octane offense, led by Zach LaVine, should exploit Sacramento’s inconsistent defense.
Over/Under (237.5): Over. Both teams rank in the top 10 in pace and scoring.
Prop Bets:
Zach LaVine Over 27.5 Points: LaVine will benefit from Sacramento’s subpar perimeter defense.
Domantas Sabonis Over 11.5 Rebounds: Sabonis is vital for Sacramento’s transition opportunities.
Indiana Pacers (+9.0) at Cleveland Cavaliers
Injury Notes: Donovan Mitchell will play, bolstering Cleveland’s potent offense.
Key Stats:
Cleveland: #1 in scoring margin (+11.5) and #1 in three-point percentage (40.5%).
Indiana: Weak defensively, allowing 115.5 points/game (#22).
Pick: Cavaliers -9.0. Cleveland’s balanced attack and elite defense will overpower Indiana.
Over/Under (239.5): Under. Cleveland limits high-scoring games with their top-tier defense.
Prop Bets:
Donovan Mitchell Over 21.5 Points: Mitchell’s scoring will shine against Indiana’s porous defense.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 27.5 Points + Assists: Haliburton remains Indiana’s offensive engine.
New Orleans Pelicans (+14.5) at Boston Celtics
Injury Notes: Zion Williamson (questionable). Boston’s depth remains strong.
Key Stats:
Boston: #3 in scoring margin (+9.5) and #6 in defensive points allowed (108.4).
New Orleans: Struggles offensively (#29 in points/game) and defensively (#29 in opponent FG%).
Pick: Celtics -14.5. Boston’s elite three-point shooting (18.0 3PM/game, #1) overwhelms New Orleans.
Over/Under (226.5): Under. Boston’s defense will limit New Orleans' already low-scoring offense.
Prop Bets:
Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 Points: Holiday steps up against his former team.
Boston Over 15.5 3PM: Their league-leading three-point shooting fuels blowouts.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-16.5) at Washington Wizards
Injury Notes: Oklahoma City is fully healthy, while Washington is severely undermanned.
Key Stats:
Oklahoma City: #2 in scoring margin (+11.2) and #1 in steals/game (11.6).
Washington: Worst defense in the league, allowing 122.3 points/game.
Pick: Thunder -16.5. OKC’s aggressive play will exploit Washington’s deficiencies on both ends.
Over/Under (230.5): Over. Washington’s pace and defensive struggles guarantee high scoring.
Prop Bets:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 Points: SGA dominates weaker opponents.
OKC Over 10.5 Steals: Washington’s turnover-prone offense provides opportunities.
Brooklyn Nets (+4.0) at Utah Jazz
Injury Notes: Both teams are missing key players, impacting offensive output.
Key Stats:
Brooklyn: Worst rebounding team (#30) but decent in effective FG% (53.2%).
Utah: Strong rebounding team (#6) but ranks #26 in defensive points allowed.
Pick: Jazz -4.0. Utah’s advantage on the boards (53.8 RPG, #6) gives them the edge.
Over/Under (216.0): Under. Neither team has the firepower to hit high totals.
Prop Bets:
Walker Kessler Over 12.5 Rebounds: Utah dominates the glass.
Charlotte Hornets (+7.0) at Phoenix Suns
Injury Notes: Charlotte is healthy but lacks firepower against elite teams.
Key Stats:
Phoenix: #10 in assists/game (27.2) and #8 in defensive FG% (46.4%).
Charlotte: Last in offensive efficiency and effective FG% (50.4%).
Pick: Suns -7.0. Phoenix’s superior ball movement and defense will control the game.
Over/Under (224.0): Under. Charlotte’s offensive inefficiencies drag down scoring.
Prop Bets:
Devin Booker Over 25.5 Points: Booker thrives as Phoenix’s offensive leader.
Final Thoughts
There’s a ton of action today! I really like the Bills and the Packers. Hopefully, we can stack some decks on those and then go into the night game with some upside / profit.
Not much time left in the football season! So sad… but there are always plenty of money-making opportunities out there (or opportunities for more action!) so don’t worry, I will find them :).
-Mike