🕒 7:00 PM ET @ Stephen C. O’Connell Center, Gainesville, FL
💰 Moneyline: Florida -1800 / Oklahoma +900 | Total: 156.5 (-115 over / -105 under)
Oklahoma’s road struggles and weak rebounding make this a nightmare matchup against a Florida team that thrives at home. The Gators have covered in four of their last five home games and should dominate inside against Oklahoma’s shaky interior defense.
Key betting trends:
Oklahoma: 11-14 ATS, 3-9 in conference play, 1-5 on the road.
Florida: 18-7 ATS, 9-3 in conference play, strong home record.
Head-to-Head: First meeting since 2022, Florida covered in 4 of last 5 home games.
Matchup analysis
Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 16-9, 11-14 ATS
✅ Strong free throw shooting (80.1%, 9th in NCAA)
✅ Efficient three-point shooting (35.9%, 73rd in NCAA)
✅ Effective scoring in transition (42.0 second-half PPG, 27th in NCAA)
✅ Aggressive on defense (8.3 steals per game, 34th in NCAA)
✅ Solid turnover margin (+0.9 per game)
❌ Weak rebounding (32.3 RPG, 296th in NCAA)
❌ Inconsistent defense in the paint (54.9% opponent 2PT%, 315th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles against elite competition (1-5 on the road)
Key injuries: L. Northweather (out – foot), G. Taylor (out – knee).
Florida Gators
Record: 22-3, 18-7 ATS
✅ Elite rebounding (42.3 RPG, 3rd in NCAA)
✅ Stifling defense (66.5 OPP PPG, 37th in NCAA)
✅ Strong three-point defense (28.2% allowed, 3rd in NCAA)
✅ Efficient scoring (47.1 FG%, 50th in NCAA)
✅ Depth and balanced scoring (four players averaging double figures)
❌ Free throw shooting inconsistency (71.7%, 198th in NCAA)
❌ Vulnerable to fast-paced offenses (Florida ranks 12th in possessions per game, could lead to higher opponent scoring)
❌ Potentially missing Alex Condon (ankle, questionable)
Key injuries: S. Alexis (out – undisclosed), A. Condon (out – ankle), O. Rioux (out – redshirt).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Florida 86 - Oklahoma 68
Outcome: Florida covers the spread | Key factors: Oklahoma’s rebounding struggles, Florida’s defensive strength, and home-court advantage.
Spread pick | Florida -15.5 (-105) - Reasoning: Florida has covered in four of their last five home games, and Oklahoma’s defensive lapses inside make this a bad matchup for them. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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