🕒 7:00 PM ET @ Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
💰 Moneyline: Michigan State -170 / Purdue +145 | Total: 148.5 (-110 over / -110 under)
Purdue has owned this matchup, covering in nine of the last ten meetings. Their efficient offense should keep things tight, even against Michigan State’s rebounding edge. We’re backing Purdue to cover in what should be a close battle.
Key betting trends:
Purdue: 15-11 ATS, 6-2 ATS as an away team.
Michigan State: 15-9-1 ATS, 8-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Head-to-Head: Purdue has won 9 of the last 10 meetings, including a 67-62 victory in their last matchup.
Matchup analysis
Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 19-7, 15-11 ATS
✅ Efficient shooting (49.4% FG, 4th in NCAA)
✅ Strong ball movement (16.5 assists per game, 25th in NCAA)
✅ Three-point efficiency (37.7%, 26th in NCAA)
✅ Low turnover rate (10.5 turnovers per game, 51st in NCAA)
✅ Strong scoring margin (+8.8, 42nd in NCAA)
❌ Weak interior defense (54.9% opponent 2PT%, 318th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles on the offensive glass (8.1 offensive rebounds per game, 234th in NCAA)
Key injuries: D. Jacobsen (out - knee).
Michigan State Spartans
Record: 20-5, 15-9-1 ATS
✅ Elite rebounding (40.5 rebounds per game, 7th in NCAA)
✅ Strong defensive presence (67.5 opponent PPG, 48th in NCAA)
✅ Excellent free throw shooting (80.6%, 4th in NCAA)
✅ Tough perimeter defense (28.9% opponent 3PT%, 8th in NCAA)
✅ High assist rate (17.6 assists per game, 8th in NCAA)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (29.1%, 354th in NCAA)
❌ Low steals per game (5.3, 317th in NCAA)
Key injuries: C. Walton (out - redshirt).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Michigan State 74 - Purdue 72
Outcome: Purdue covers the spread | Key factors: Purdue’s shooting efficiency, Michigan State’s rebounding, and defensive intensity.
Spread pick | Purdue +3.5 (-110) - Reasoning: Purdue has covered in 9 of the last 10 meetings against Michigan State, and their efficient offense should keep this one close. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10) |
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