Random Stuff From This Week 🤔
I was going through my phone and found this photo when I was playing black jack in the high limit room at Aria. This dude was having a wild time! Had to share so I’m not laughing alone.
Lions OCs are both interviewing for multiple coaching jobs this week. Glenn: Jets, Saints, Raiders, Jags, and Bears. Johnson: Patriots, Raiders, Bears, and Jags. I’d probably prefer to spend my time in Vegas…
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…with Tom Brady and unlimited food/entertainment options.
NBA Betting Analysis for January 10th, 2025
Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers (+7.5, O/U 225.0)
Warriors Notes: Kuminga, Wiggins, Podziemski, Moody, and Payton are OUT. Curry is a potential bounce-back candidate but hasn’t played in many back-to-backs this season. Buddy Hield has been the primary offensive contributor in these injury-affected games.
Pacers Notes: Tyrese Haliburton is likely to play despite his ankle issue, and his playmaking will be crucial. Thomas Bryant continues to excel in Myles Turner’s absence, posting 22 points and 8 rebounds last game.
Best Bets:
Spread: Pacers +7.5
Prop: Buddy Hield Over 19.5 Points. Haliburton Over 10.5 Assists.
Over/Under: Lean Under 225.0 due to potential slow pace from the Warriors' injuries.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic (+6.5, O/U 210.0)
Bucks Notes: Giannis, Lillard, and Middleton are probable and should lead the team offensively. Bobby Portis could have a larger role if Lopez’s minutes are limited.
Magic Notes: Paolo Banchero’s return from injury (likely on a minutes limit) impacts their offensive flow. Suggs, Franz Wagner, and Mo Wagner remain OUT, leaving Cole Anthony as a key scorer.
Best Bets:
Spread: Bucks -6.5 with their Big Three active.
Prop: Damian Lillard Over 25.5 Points. Cole Anthony Over 5.5 Assists.
Over/Under: Lean Under 210.0 given both teams’ recent slow pace and defensive strength.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4.0, O/U 219.5)
Pelicans Notes: Zion Williamson should see around 28 minutes as his usage spikes in the absence of Ingram and Murphy. CJ McCollum continues to facilitate.
76ers Notes: Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond remain OUT. Tyrese Maxey and Paul George are the focal points. Maxey averages 27 points in this scenario.
Best Bets:
Spread: 76ers -4.0.
Prop: Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points. Tyrese Maxey Over 24.5 Points.
Over/Under: Over 219.5 with high usage for both teams' stars.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks (+3.5, O/U 225.5)
Thunder Notes: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage has been elite, averaging 26 FG attempts per game over the last two. Jalen Williams is emerging as a consistent second option.
Knicks Notes: Karl-Anthony Towns continues to find his rhythm post-injury. Brunson and Bridges should see heavy usage in a tight game.
Best Bets:
Spread: Knicks +3.5 (+5 now) with home-court advantage.
Prop: SGA Over 29.5 Points. Karl-Anthony Towns Under 20.5 Points.
Over/Under: Under 225.5 with both teams emphasizing half-court sets.
Sacramento Kings @ Boston Celtics (-10.5, O/U 230.0)
Kings Notes: De’Aaron Fox remains questionable. Without him, Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk carry the offense.
Celtics Notes: Fully healthy squad with Tatum, Brown, and Porzingis. Derrick White’s playmaking adds depth.
Best Bets:
Spread: Celtics -10.5 if Fox is OUT.
Prop: Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points. Domantas Sabonis Over 10.5 Rebounds.
Over/Under: Over 230.0 as both teams excel offensively in transition.
Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls (-11.5, O/U 243.5)
Wizards Notes: Kyle Kuzma and Corey Kispert lead a depleted lineup with Jordan Poole questionable. Valanciunas plays limited minutes but is effective on the boards.
Bulls Notes: Zach LaVine and Coby White will dominate the scoring with strong matchups against the Wizards’ porous defense.
Best Bets:
Spread: Bulls -11.5.
Prop: Zach LaVine Over 27.5 Points. Kyle Kuzma Over 6.5 Rebounds.
Over/Under: Over 243.5 due to weak defensive efficiency from both teams.
Brooklyn Nets @ Denver Nuggets (-15.5, O/U 219.0)
Nets Notes: Ben Simmons returns and should play a facilitating role. Cam Johnson and Cam Thomas remain OUT, limiting their offensive ceiling.
Nuggets Notes: Nikola Jokic (questionable) changes the dynamics significantly. Without him, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. take over scoring duties.
Best Bets:
Spread: Nuggets -15.5 if Jokic plays. If not, lean Nets +15.5.
Prop: Jamal Murray Over 24.5 Points. Ben Simmons Over 8.5 Assists.
Over/Under: Under 219.0 without Jokic, as Denver’s offense slows significantly.
Final Summary of Best Picks:
Best Spread Bets: Celtics -10.5 (if Fox OUT), Bulls -11.5, 76ers -4.0.
Best Over/Under: Under 210.0 (Bucks vs. Magic), Over 243.5 (Wizards vs. Bulls).
Top Player Props:
Damian Lillard Over 25.5 Points.
Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points.
Tyrese Maxey Over 24.5 Points.
Buddy Hield Over 19.5 Points.
Ben Simmons Over 8.5 Assists.
Key Matchups For NFL Playoff Games
Chargers vs. Texans (+3)
My gut is really telling me to take the Texans, but their offense has failed so many times this year and I’m just not sure I can trust the right side of their offensive line. The key will be for Houston to get that run game going with Joe Mixon early.
Will Bosa be able to get to the QB? If so, we have to like the Chargers and especially if they can stop the run early.
Steelers vs. Ravens (-9)
That is a pretty huge spread for a divisional game, but the Steelers have really gone downhill fast. I think the key matchup here is the pass rush of the Ravens. If they can get to Wilson, it negates the Steelers’ ability to throw deep down field and take advantage of the Ravens poor secondary.
Broncos vs. Bills (-8.5)
I like the Bills but Denver has a good shot to cover if they focus their attack on the middle of the field against the Bills. I think Bo Nix will have some opportunities to create plays and Denver will likely try to go deep over the top of the safeties, which is where Buffalo is weaker.
Packers vs. Eagles (-5)
This is a really interesting game because Green Bay has the talent to make a run but they’re going up against potentially the best team in the NFC right off the bat. A key matchup will be the Packers’ offensive line vs. the Eagles defensive line. GB needs to have that run game going and keep the Eagles defense off balance to hit some bigger shots down the field.
Packers will have a shot if they can slow down the run game and make Hurts throw the ball, potentially forcing him into mistakes as the plays break down.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers (-3)
I’m expecting a higher scoring game here between two teams that have some defensive issues. Tampa can’t really stop the pass and the Commanders can’t stop the run so both teams should be able to move the ball on offense. Just based on experience, I prefer the Bucs in this one. The defensive front on the Commanders is just not good at all — I expect Bucky Irving to crush it in this game.
Vikings vs. Rams (+2.5)
This game has now moved to Arizona due to the fires in LA. I like the Vikings to bounce back and like it even more now that it’s basically a neutral site game. I think the key here is the Vikings offensive line keeping Sam Darnold upright. If Darnold has time he’s good, if not he really struggles. The Rams defense has been improving and I think the Vikings defense is decent enough — I expect this game to go under the 47.5 and the Vikings to win by 7 or so. The Rams offense has been oddly inconsistent all year as well.
Final Thoughts
I’ll be back with a deep dive into all the NFL games. Good luck with all your bets!