🕒 7:00 PM ET @ Humphrey Coliseum, Mississippi
💰 Moneyline: Mississippi State -150 / Texas A&M +130 | Total: 143.5 (-110 over / -110 under)
Texas A&M’s dominance on the boards and defensive toughness make them a live underdog in this one. Mississippi State has struggled to cover in conference play, and their weak perimeter defense could leave them vulnerable. We’re taking the points with the Aggies, who have been a strong road team all year.
Key betting trends:
Texas A&M: 14-8-3 ATS overall, strong road underdog (3-1-1 ATS).
Mississippi State: 11-14 ATS, inconsistent in conference play (4-8 ATS).
Head-to-Head: Mississippi State has won 6 of the last 10 matchups, but Texas A&M took the last meeting 75-69.
Matchup analysis
Texas A&M
Record: 20-5, 14-8-3 ATS
✅ Elite rebounding (4th in total rebounds per game)
✅ Strong defensive presence (31st in opponent PPG)
✅ Aggressive on the offensive glass (1st in offensive rebound %)
✅ Tough interior defense (13th in opponent FG%)
✅ Efficient at drawing fouls (12th in free throw attempts per game)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (31.2%, 307th in the nation)
❌ Struggles at the free-throw line (68.4%, 294th in the nation)
Key injuries: None reported.
Mississippi State
Record: 18-7, 11-14 ATS
✅ Balanced scoring attack (79.3 PPG, 45th in the nation)
✅ Strong offensive efficiency (24th in KenPom offensive efficiency)
✅ High-pressure defense (9.2 steals per game, 12th in the nation)
✅ Excellent inside scoring (55.9% on two-pointers, 38th in the nation)
✅ Solid shot-blocking (4.7 blocks per game, 36th in the nation)
❌ Weak perimeter defense (35.8% opponent 3PT%, 293rd in the nation)
❌ Free throw struggles (67.9%, 311th in the nation)
Key injuries: K. Clary (out - leg).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Texas A&M 76 - Mississippi State 74
Outcome: Texas A&M covers the spread | Key factors: Texas A&M’s rebounding advantage, Mississippi State’s defensive inconsistencies, and free-throw struggles on both sides.
Spread pick | Texas A&M +2.5 (-105) - Reasoning: The Aggies’ dominance on the boards and their ability to slow the game down give them an edge in a close contest. Mississippi State’s defensive lapses against the three could also be costly. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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