🕒 8:00 PM ET @ Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX
💰 Moneyline: Texas Tech -380 / TCU +290 | Total: 140.5 (-105 over / -115 under)
Texas Tech has the firepower, but TCU’s home-court advantage and defensive grit make this spread interesting. The Horned Frogs have covered in 3 of their last 5, and Texas Tech’s road defense has shown cracks. We’re backing TCU to keep it close.
Key betting trends:
Texas Tech: 14-11 ATS overall, strong as an away favorite (3-1 ATS, +14.8 ATS differential).
TCU: 9-16 ATS overall, struggling at home (6-8 ATS).
Head-to-Head: Texas Tech has won 3 of the last 4 matchups, covering twice.
Matchup analysis
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record: 20-5, 14-11 ATS
✅ Elite offense (82.0 PPG, 25th in NCAA)
✅ Strong three-point shooting (38.1%, 34th in NCAA)
✅ Balanced attack (106.5 offensive efficiency, 10th in NCAA)
✅ Strong rebounding (36.9 RPG, 46th in NCAA)
✅ Tough defense (67.5 PPG allowed, 61st in NCAA)
❌ Turnover-prone (10.8 TO per game, bottom half of NCAA)
❌ Inconsistent perimeter defense (32.4% opponent 3PT, 176th in NCAA)
Key injuries: Eemeli Yalaho (questionable - undisclosed), Jazz Henderson (out - lower body).
TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 14-11, 9-16 ATS
✅ Aggressive defense (68.0 PPG allowed, 67th in NCAA)
✅ Strong rebounding (30.8 RPG, 262nd in NCAA but trending up)
✅ Improved shooting efficiency (48.2% FG last game)
✅ Perimeter defense (31.0% opponent 3PT, 42nd in NCAA)
✅ Home-court momentum (3-game home win streak)
❌ Poor offense (68.2 PPG, 320th in NCAA)
❌ Weak three-point shooting (30.5%, 322nd in NCAA)
❌ Free throw struggles (64.2%, bottom 10 in NCAA)
Key injuries: Frankie Collins (out - foot), Isaiah Manning (questionable - hip).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Texas Tech 74 - TCU 69
Outcome: TCU covers the spread | Key factors: Texas Tech’s offensive firepower, TCU’s defensive edge, and home-court factor.
Spread pick | TCU +8.5 (-105) - Reasoning: The Horned Frogs have covered in 3 of their last 5 and should keep this one close at home. Texas Tech's road defense isn't elite. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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