🏈 NFL TNF Game 1 Picks - Cowboys vs. Eagles
Dallas was a 7 point underdog when this line opened and then the trade for Micah Parsons happened, which pushed the line to 8. Briefly yesterday, it moved to +8.5 and that value was too good to pass up on.
I have a small bet on Dallas +8.5, mostly because 1) this is a divisional game and those games tend to always be closer and 2) I don’t believe the Parsons trade should’ve impacted this line at all.
Why would that move the line? He either was not going to play or potentially play injured. Instead they added Kenny Clark, which might actually help them this game against a running team. So, I really like +8.5 is great value here on Dallas. I obviously will not be surprised if they get blown out by the Eagles, but it feels like everyone thinks the Eagles will blow them out.
Last year, Dallas had no Dak, injured CeeDee, no Parsons, no Lawrence… they were basically destroyed. Eagles will win but I think Dallas can move the ball and backdoor this one. They successfully moved the ball when Dak played last year in the short passing game and that’s exactly how to attack the Eagles — quick throws and relieve any pressure on the QB.
I’ll be back tomorrow with some more bets, player props, etc. but those are my initial thoughts on this game.
⚾ MLB Picks – 9/3/25
1. Guardians vs. Red Sox – Under 9.5 (–120)
Shane Bieber (9.6 FPTS) projects solidly, and Kyle Harrison* is expected to follow bulk innings for Cleveland.
Both teams have been inconsistent offensively, and with Fenway not playing as hitter-friendly lately, this sets up as a lower-scoring game.
The 9.5 total feels inflated given the projected pitching edge.
2. Giants @ Rockies – YRFI (–140)
Both matchups (Giants hitters vs Rockies pitchers, and Rockies hitters vs Giants pitchers) grade out as elite hitting spots in Coors.
The wOBA projections (.371+ for both sides) point to early runs.
With German Márquez struggling and SF’s bullpen thin, this is one of the slate’s best bets.