My Favorite Bet (Same-Game Parlay)
Packers -2.5 + Jordan Love UNDER passing yards (≈224.5–226.5)
Correlated with a run-first GB script. I’d play to Under to 219.5 if needed, but looks like you can even get 228.5 on some books still. I locked this in early.
Straight Props To Consider for Bets or Parlays [Premium Only]
Game Script & Why These Play
Short week = physical, simplified plans. GB already leans run; expect Jacobs to run and also having two lineman questionable they’ll want to simplify and protect the QB.
Washington offense with Daniels stresses edges and 3rd-level rules. If GB leads, scramble volume climbs → Daniels carries + rush yards Overs and Anytime TD correlate. I expect Washington to hit some plays with Daniels’ legs.
WAS secondary wasn’t tested last week (Giants issues). GB can still hit a few Golden slants/overs; 35.5 is a low receiving number and he’s operating as the WR1. It won’t be every single week GB hits 8+ WRs for catches.
Tight ends vs. pressure: quick outlets matter → Ertz 3.5+ receptions and Jacobs receiving both fit a “hot-read/check-down” night. Commanders pass rush looked ok against the Giants (missing key OL that game) and we know GB has a great pass rush with Parsons and crew.
Total lean: Under makes sense given two run-leaning identities on a short week, but I’m thinking more about Love Under pass yards + Daniels rush/carries instead of the full-game number.
Market Check (for context, not gospel)
Spread has hovered around GB -3 with money & tickets fairly split at times.
Under saw heavy public interest at multiple points this week.
Translation: not a lopsided market—your edges should come from game-flow correlations (GB lead + Love Under + Daniels rush volume).
Counterpoints (what could beat me here WTF am I missing?)
If Washington strings 12–15 play drives, Love’s attempts climb and our Under gets fragile. We really want GB to have a lead and the defense to show up. The bet here is GB dominates up front on both sides of the ball.
If GB’s DT trade softens the interior and WAS runs efficiently from 11/12 personnel, it keeps the Packers’ offense on the sideline and flips the leverage to WAS +3.5. If I am Commanders, I am testing this run defense for sure.
Explosive QB variance: one 40-yard Daniels keeper can juice both WAS cover chances and the Daniels props (good for props, tougher for GB -2.5). If Washington scores first and early, we could engage in a shootout, which would have GB testing a relatively weak Washington secondary.
Long-Shot Parlay of the Week (fun stuff!)
Packers -3
Ravens -12
Seahawks +3
New Mexico +15
Memphis -3 (bought 0.5)
Wisconsin +21 (bought 0.5)
Connecticut -10 (bought 0.5)
Georgia Tech +3.5 (bought 0.5)
South Carolina ML
Boston College -13.5
Houston ML
Payout is wild. Entertainment only.
Good luck tonight!