49ers +7 (-110) | Rams -7 (-110)

Moneyline: 49ers +270 | Rams -340

Total: O/U 46.5 (-110)

49ers +3.5 (-110) | Rams -3.5 (-110)

ML: +175 | -210

Total: O23.0 (-105) | U23.0 (-115)

QB edge: Stafford 90.7 PFF (4th) vs Purdy 66.7 (22nd, Q-tag) → Major Rams advantage if Purdy’s mobility/planting is limited.

Team strength: Rams 6th overall / 7th offense vs 49ers 8th overall / 20th offense.

Passing: Rams offense is explosive (#3 yards/play, 6.2) and strong in EPA/pass; 49ers defense counters with elite pass suppression (#3 opponent yards/pass).

Run game: SF rushing has lagged (3.3 YPC, #31; EPA/run -0.18) and now faces a solid LAR front (3.9 YPC allowed, #9).

Pressure: LAR defense #2 in sack rate (≈10%); SF pass pro #7—but any Purdy limitation magnifies pressure.

Money downs / RZ: SF offense #3 on 3rd down (≈48%) yet #27 in RZ TD rate → drives can stall for FGs.

Turnovers: Rams +0.8 per game; 49ers -1.3 per game.

WR/CBs: Puka Nacua (PFF 93.1) operates as the alpha vs a 49ers secondary that’s stingy in yards but not creating many takeaways.

✅ Under 46.5 (-110) — two good defenses, divisional game, short week