Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee
Kick: 7:30 PM ET
Line: Missouri State -1.5 (-115) | MTSU +1.5 (-105)
ML: MOST -130 | MTSU +110
Total: 50.0
Quick Read
Both teams come off byes after losses. Missouri State showed real bite vs WKU before fading late; MTSU out-gained Kennesaw State but was buried by mistakes and a slow start. It’s Missouri State’s first FBS year; first FBS meeting between these two.
Matchup Edges
MO-ST pass O (7.9 YPP; #40) vs MTSU pass D (9.4 YPP allowed; #130, 72.3% opp comp #132): Big efficiency gap favors the Bears through the air if protection holds.
MTSU pass O (259.8 YPG; #37) vs MOST pass D (8.3 YPA allowed; #111): Blue Raiders’ best path is also through the air.
Red zone & 3rd downs: Both offenses bog down (MOST 3D 22.2% #135; RZ 62.5% #132 | MTSU RZ 66.7% #127), which can create stalled drives… but those secondaries leak explosives.
OL/DL notes: MOST QB pressure is a concern (11.6% sack rate #129), though MTSU’s sack rate is middling (#70).
QB health watch: If Jacob Clark (MOST) goes, the downfield edge grows; if not, expect more QB run + underneath game.
Liberty @ UTEP
Kick: 8:00 PM ET
Line: Liberty -2.0 (-110) | UTEP +2.0 (-110)
ML: LIB -125 | UTEP +105
Total: 46.0
Quick Read
Liberty’s defense has traveled; the offense has not (14.3 PPG in the table set). UTEP has leaned pass but with efficiency/turnover problems. Reports expect QB Ethan Vasko back for Liberty, which stabilizes the plan even if the Flames remain run-leaning.
Matchup Edges
UTEP pass O (60% pass rate; INT% 6.0% #135) vs LIB pass D (170.5 PYPG allowed #18): Strength-on-strength for Liberty; UTEP’s turnovers are a red flag.
Liberty run O (157.3 YPG #58; 61% rush rate #13) vs UTEP run D (175.3 YPG allowed #95): Expect the Flames to shorten the game on the ground.
Pass rush mismatch: Liberty’s OL allows a nation-worst 13.9% sack rate (#136) vs UTEP’s top-5 sack rate (10.5% #5). That argues for an even heavier Liberty run script and quick-game when throwing.
Totals context: Offenses: LIB 14.3 PPG (#123), UTEP 15.5 PPG (#119). Defenses are better against the pass than the run, which nudges both teams to clock-draining approaches.